Re: Re: market change due to
By: poindexter FORTRAN to Arelor on Sun Sep 14 2025 09:10 am

We'll see if the bubble bursts. Most of these LLMs aren't making money,
and seem to have ChatGPT as a basis. NVidia is making money, that's
about it. Wonder when the investors will realize this?

I don't think the Marketing crash will be due to AI at all.

Plain and simple, so many marketing services cost more than they can generate for the customer. If I buy advertisements for my business today it is less likely those advertisements will pay themselves than it used to be.

I have a friend doing serious marketing plans and that is the core of the issue. At this point the business plan of many marketing studios is to sell plans they know don't work and keep doing it until the customer realizes the marketing plans are not profitable. Then there are marketing studios that are a bit more ethical that outright state "with that budget, we can help you sell all the merchandise you are having trouble selling, so you don't end up losing as much money".

Combine this with the fact the purchasing power of people is in heavy decline. When things go badly, the first expenses firms cut are advertisements.


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Unpopular opinion here: IT as a sector is bound to enter a crisis because so much IT personal is producing no value at all.

But that happens cyclically. The Y2K cleanout, the .COM bubble, etc.

IMHO, there is about to be another event like the ".COM bubble" burst, but
this time it will involve AI... either a bubble that burst, or a lot of
layoffs (before they realize that oh, wait, we needed those people!).


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Re: Re: market change due to
By: Dumas Walker to DR. WHAT on Mon Sep 15 2025 10:44 am

IMHO, there is about to be another event like the ".COM bubble" burst, but this time it will involve AI... either a bubble that burst, or a lot of layoffs (before they realize that oh, wait, we needed those people!).

Although layoffs are somewhat depressing, I also find it a little humorous in a weird way that a lot of tech companies have layoffs fairly often, and then hire people later for other projects. Companies always like to have new & different projects to work on so they can stay in business, but rather than keep employees, they tend to have layoffs and hire different people instead.

Nightfox

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Hello Nightfox!

** On Monday 15.09.25 - 13:28, Nightfox wrote to Dumas Walker:

...but rather than keep employees, they tend to have
layoffs and hire different people instead.

If they get rid of people within a few years, they can then
avoid paying anyone severance. Severance usually requires a
minimum number of years employment at the same company.




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Hello Arelor!

** On Monday 15.09.25 - 08:58, Arelor wrote to poindexter FORTRAN:

...When things go badly, the first expenses firms cut are
advertisements.

Yep.. Been there. Done that. When lockdowns happened, I
practically stopped advertising in the newspaper (usually just
3 times a year during busy seasons) ..but I couldn't justify
the expense for a local paper.

Now, I am revisiting ads, but in community groups like the
local theater that puts out a nice programme magazine that is
available at every show and in a variety of places in town. I
think that reaches out to the tourists and locals that I seek
better than an occassional ad in the paper anyway. https://www.villageplayhouse.ca/
I also sponsor the https://www.bancroftfieldnaturalists.ca/


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Re: market change due to
By: Ogg to Nightfox on Tue Sep 16 2025 03:10 am

...but rather than keep employees, they tend to have layoffs and hire
different people instead.

If they get rid of people within a few years, they can then avoid paying anyone severance. Severance usually requires a minimum number of years employment at the same company.

At one of the companies I used to work at (which was a fairly big company), they've had big layoffs where they've let people go who had been there many years, and paid severences. Sometimes, they'd even offer an extra severance bonus if they chose to leave the company before they did their actual layoffs.

Nightfox

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Re: market change due to
By: Ogg to Arelor on Tue Sep 16 2025 03:32 am

Now, I am revisiting ads, but in community groups like the
local theater that puts out a nice programme magazine that is
available at every show and in a variety of places in town. I
think that reaches out to the tourists and locals that I seek
better than an occassional ad in the paper anyway.

Yeah, there are still some cheap venues that can pay themselves. There used to be a bakery near my workplace in which they wrapped the cakes with paper decorated with advertisements. The advertisement company provided the paper for free to the bakery so campaigns were extremely cheap. I doubt they were extremely effective, but if they were inexpensive enough *maybe* they could be worth it.


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Nightfox wrote to Dumas Walker <=-

Although layoffs are somewhat depressing, I also find it a little
humorous in a weird way that a lot of tech companies have layoffs
fairly often, and then hire people later for other projects. Companies always like to have new & different projects to work on so they can
stay in business, but rather than keep employees, they tend to have layoffs and hire different people instead.

Contractors are cheaper, and aren't laid off, you just don't extend
their contract. I've worked in some environments that were
project-heavy and they people were used to having their contracts end,
go do something else, then come back in 6 months to work on a new
project, same teams, same desk.

My worst layoff story - I worked at Macromedia back in the 90s and left
in 1997. They started a move from full-spectrum multimedia authoring
tools to All Internet, All the Time. I was there when they bought the
company that became Flash, that was the beginning of the change.

When I was there, we had 400 employees and a normal organizational
structure. A new CEO brought in duplicate executives (imagine having a
VP of sales AND a VP of revenues) until the redundant executives left.

The company ballooned to 1800 employees, then when the .com bubble
burst, they began massive layoffs. The company dropped to 800
employees, 80 of which were VP level. One Tenth of the company was a
VP!

Layoffs for thee but not for me, indeed.



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